Friday, December 5, 2014

Unlearning Money: Part 2

Here's a funny thing about bank-created money:

A real estate investor sells one of her holdings, an apartment in Encinitas, California, to a young couple for $400,000. The couple finances 100 % of the purchase with a mortgage from a bank. The bank creates a $400,000 deposit out of thin air and the couple transfers the deposit to the investor. The investor feels, for a good reason, that she got paid for the apartment. One month after the transaction, the investor realizes she doesn't want to just sit on the money earning 1,0 % (from a Certificate of Deposit). She decides instead to invest it in a mortgage-backed security (MBS) which yields 3,0 %. A mortgage-originating bank has created this security by bundling loans it has made to homebuyers. In effect, the investor ends up funding homebuyers. She went, in the course of a month or so, from a rental-income-earning apartment owner to someone who has a claim on mortgage payments -- did she, or did she not, get paid for her apartment?

Of course you might argue that she got paid for the particular apartment and then invested her money elsewhere. But it's again the micro-view of money. I took this up because this is very relevant from the macroeconomic perspective. This explains how banks make loans and by doing so they simultaneously create the deposit that can later buy these loans if the bank decides to securitize those loans, i.e. sell them forward to investors in a bundle. And this is what is happening in financial markets every day. From a macroeconomic perspective, the society as a whole is not getting paid, yet. In a (very real) sense, when people buy something with money (an IOU), it's the buyer who gets paid (in assets, goods or services), not the seller. This multitude of available perspectives is what makes economics fascinating to me. At times it is also horribly confusing.

In our example above, the investor ended up holding an MBS because she preferred it to money (in this case a deposit). This is not so surprising, because money -- whether she thought of it or not -- is just another IOU. Whereas the MBS is linked to a bunch of mortgages, a deposit is (indirectly) linked to all loans on a bank's balance sheet. Here's an important point: Funding, seen from the perspective I have taken here, means "accepting IOUs from others". What it doesn't mean is "providing money". By accepting money as a payment, you accept an IOU -- you are funding someone (indirectly a bank borrower or directly a government). If you are later willing to lend the money out and accept another type of an IOU, you end up trading IOUs. Perhaps we could call it "redirecting your funding".

So when one thinks about "money flows", it's best to concentrate on who owes whom and how the positions are changing. It's best to forget the idea that there would be some "real" money flowing from A to B. There isn't.

I'll use QE as a stylized example: As part of its latest QE program, the Fed buys a Treasury Bond from Bank W. The Fed "pays" by creating reserves on Bank W's reserve account, indicating that it owes Bank W. What happened here is this: first the government owed Bank W (holder of the bond), but now the Fed owes Bank W and the government owes the Fed. If Bank W had previously bought the bond from Investor K and "paid" by creating a deposit for the investor, then the IOU chain is one link longer: The government used to owe Investor K, but now Bank W owes Investor K, the Fed owes Bank W and the government owes the Fed.

I'll elaborate all this in the coming posts.

I end the post with a riddle: Assuming that the shareholders of a bank have deposit accounts in the bank, does the bank pay dividends to its shareholders?

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Unlearning Money: Part 1

What is money? I really don't have a clear-cut answer. But I don't think we need to define money to understand the intricacies of our economy. I would argue that to understand the modern economy, it helps to unlearn money, while at the same time keeping in mind how people perceive money. Let me explain.

To understand how the economy as a whole works, what can be called macroeconomics, we need to have a drastically different perspective on money than we have in private, microeconomic, matters. It takes some effort to develop this perspective, because what is needed is unlearning (often the hardest part) what one thought was money. After all, none of us are born monetary economists, and so we go through at least the first 20 years of our lives learning what I call the micro-view of money. Most of us have heard at one point in our life something along the lines "money is actually debt", but it remains more of a curiosity. Why? I think it is partly because it is hard to grasp -- it would take some unlearning as it is incompatible with our prevailing understanding. And perhaps people think it doesn't matter, that it doesn't have any practical meaning for them. And in private life, it rarely does.

But in monetary and macroeconomics, it is not a curiosity. There, modern day money (bank reserves, cash, commercial bank deposits) is nothing but an IOU. This I call the macro-view of money. In the following I will present my view on these three types of "money": bank reserves, cash and deposits.

Bank Reserves

In connection to Quantitative easing (QE), there has been a lot of talk about (central) bank reserves. Some people have suggested that the commercial banks should lend them out to the public, that the problem is that "banks are sitting on the reserves". But the thing is that they can't lend them out to anyone else than other banks. And the other banks don't want to borrow them.

Is it really so? Even Alan Greenspan, after 18+ years at the helm of the Federal Reserve, suggests in this interview (starting at 12:10, actual statement 14:02), with Gillian Tett of Financial Times, that Wells Fargo could lend its reserves ("cash") to IBM or U.S. Steel, or other businesses. But it just isn't so, and you don't need to look further than the New York Fed to figure it out:

"…the Federal Reserve’s new liquidity facilities have created, as a byproduct, a large quantity of reserves and these reserves can only be held by banks. […] The central message of the article is that the [excess reserves] only reflect the size of the Federal Reserve’s policy initiatives; they say almost nothing about the effects these initiatives have had on bank lending or on the level of economic activity." - "Why Are Banks Holding So Many Excess Reserves?", Staff Report, July 2009

To be fair to Mr. Greenspan, he is definitely not the only expert who has shown confusion when talking about money (more or less we all do, from time to time). I think we witness here a problem created by the incompatibility between views of, on one hand, money as a commodity (compatible with Loanable funds market), and on the other, money as an IOU. In my opinion it's the former view that needs unlearning. More broadly, this confusion might even have something to do with incommensurability. (I thank George Cooper for introducing me to this concept in his "Money, Blood and Revolution".)

Ok, back to reserves. Banks could also buy financial assets -- like Treasuries or mortgage-backed securities (MBS) -- with the reserves. But only from other banks that would then end up sitting on those reserves, or from the Federal Reserve in which case total reserves would, indeed, decline. The problem with this option is that the Fed has been more keen in buying than selling Treasuries and MBSs (selling would amount to "Quantitative tightening", if you will). So it seems no one really needs those reserves at the moment. For banks, there's not much use for the reserves they hold -- other than earning the 0,25 % p.a. interest, that is. Of course, a linguist will immediately spot a tautology here and point us to Merriam-Webster:


noun, often attributive : a supply of something that is stored so that it can be used at a later time

I might get back to that in a later post...

The big picture: the central bank creates the reserves, and the central bank can take them away. The amount of reserves tells us close to nothing about bank lending to businesses and households.


Deposit Accounts

But what about the public's (households and non-bank companies) money? The ones and zeros on our bank accounts -- if we overlook the physical currency, which we can fairly safely do for now (economists have actually already started to plan to get rid of cash). Can't banks lend the deposit money out, so it doesn't just sit there? No, they can't. Banks can only (literally speaking) lend out what is money for the banks, which is the reserves at the central bank. And like we saw earlier, they can't lend it to the public. Our, the public's, money is debt, a liability, to banks. And it just doesn't make any sense to lend out debt to anyone. "Hey, here's a note that says 'I owe my friend 100 dollars', would you like to borrow it? It's fine paper." No. It's only the public who can lend out the public's money -- the bank deposits. (Well, a bank can lend out a deposit it has in another bank, just like the public can...)

So, banks don't lend their assets, for instance bank reserves, to businesses or households, nor do they lend their existing liabilities to them. It wouldn't make any sense to lend one's own liability to someone else.


What about physical currency (notes and coins), i.e. cash? While in the bank, there is full interchangeability between cash and bank reserves. Banks usually deposit (a verb) any extra cash at the central bank and the central bank increases banks' reserves when it receives this cash. Cash, like the reserves, is an IOU of the central bank, and this explains how banks treat them. But, unlike reserves, the cash can find its way to the hands of the public. The interesting thing is that cash, for the public, is interchangeable with bank deposits. But bank deposits are not central bank IOUs, like cash is. So when you deposit cash into a bank, what really happens is this: You take your IOU from the central bank to the commercial bank and agree that from now on the central bank owes the commercial bank and the commercial bank owes you. The bank writes up both your deposit account and its own reserves (or vault cash), in other words, what the central bank owes it.

If reserves can be transformed into cash, can banks -- after all -- lend them out to the public? Only indirectly. They can convert reserves to vault cash, make a loan to a customer, write up the customer's deposit account when making the loan and then convert the deposit to cash (if the customer is willing to take cash) and give it out to the customer. So banks could, individually as well as in aggregate, lower the amount of reserves by pushing cash out to the public. But to do this, they don't need to make any additional loans. It's enough if their customers convert their deposits to cash, accepting a central bank IOU instead of a commercial bank IOU. So can banks lend out reserves or not? This is getting complicated, as you see. Pushing cash out to the public is not the same as lending cash out. It sounds suspiciously like a bank run. "We're not trustworthy -- and the ATM is soon empty" could work well as a slogan if banks wanted to reduce the amount of reserves.

Today very few borrowers take the loan out in cash, but this might be where the confusion with banking comes from. In the world of yesterday, it made slightly more sense to say that a bank keeps only a fraction of public's money (meaning cash here) in the bank, and lends out the rest of it. And we should not forget how children even in today's increasingly cashless economy, when they are learning the secrets of money and saving, take their piggy-banks to the bank branch office to make a deposit. It's only natural for the parents at one point to explain how most of the money doesn't really stay in the bank but is lent out to people and businesses. So what's wrong with this story?

As I explained above, cash very rarely flows out of the bank even indirectly as a consequence of a new loan made by the bank. Directly, cash flows out of the banking system, to the public, only through people's deposit withdrawals -- just the opposite transaction from making a deposit -- at the ATM or bank branch offices (mostly paper notes) or businesses' withdrawals of coins (for change money, as people usually pay with notes). The business, after having received payments in bank notes, usually takes them back to a bank where people can withdraw them from, again. And conversely, children take the coins back to the bank where businesses can withdraw them from. That's how cash flows mostly today: between individuals and businesses as depositors, not between depositors and borrowers.

The Source of Money

If it is only depositors who take out cash from a bank, doesn't the cash we, as depositors, take to a bank then stay there until we take it out again? If not in the individual bank, then at least in banking system as a whole? After all, if it's not lent out by the bank, where would it go?

The question is not where it would go, but whence it came. There is a big chance that none of the money you have on your deposit account right now is there as a direct consequence of you taking physical currency to the bank. Am I right?

Here is where most of the deposits come from: When a bank makes a loan to someone (an individual or a business), it creates "out of nothing" the deposit that will be used as a payment for whatever the borrower is buying. There is no "money" coming from somewhere else onto the borrower's account. The deposit is the money, it is what the bank owes initially to the borrower and later to the one he transfers it to. I can hear the bank manager telling the borrower (although I doubt they ever do): "We have a loan contract here. You owe us $10,000. Here's the repayment schedule. On our side, we write up on your account the $10,000 right away - that's a deposit, something we owe you. You owe us, we owe you. Is it a deal?" Yes, it's a deal. I owe you, you owe me. A thousand dollars. A million. A billion. You can play this game with your (non-bank) friend and logically there's no limit to how much you can owe each other. You can even write it down on a piece of paper. "I, Alyosha, owe Masha one million dollars." and "I, Masha, owe Alyosha one million dollars." (It is in writing, but if you want, you can read it out loud with a thick Russian accent...). Now, if Alyosha was a bank, then as a consequence of this little play Masha would have one million dollars on her account. Basically, it is as simple as that. That is why one of my favorite economists, J.K. Galbraith, has said:

The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled.

So, to stress my point, the deposit is the money, and there is usually no other money that was deposited. It's best to forget the explanation how most of your money doesn't stay in the bank. Your money is the deposit and it doesn't go anywhere. It can be written up or down, and when you transfer money to someone else your deposit is written down and someone else's up. Forget the money behind the deposit. There isn't any. This is what I mean by unlearning money.

Actually, when one owes money to the bank, one never actually needs to pay money to the bank to repay the debt - it's enough if one is able to take posession of the bank's IOUs, its customer deposits (by, for instance, getting a salary paid on your account -- technically, a bank owes your employer, and your employer asks the bank to transfer this claim on the bank to you). If you owe the bank 100, then you repay by getting into a position where the bank also owes you 100, and asking the bank to write off these two balanced positions. That's how you repay debt: by having the bank simultaneously write off your deposit -- the bank's debt to you -- and your debt to the bank. Just like the bank wrote up your deposit and your debt to the bank when it made the loan to you.

Slightly confused? Out of initial confusion will emerge new understanding. I'm confused myself, but I'm working on it by unlearning and learning. You should have seen me 10 months ago! I felt I was dropped in the middle of a huge wilderness without a map. So many threats, so many possibilities... A brave new world. I still can taste the juicy ants, and in my dreams I swim in the ice cold water!

Some further (random) reading:

Bank of England: Quarterly Bulletin 2014 Q1

Monetary Reform – Be Careful what you aim for (George Cooper -- I also found his two books, The Origin of Financial Crises, and Money, Blood and Revolution, lucid and thought-provoking.)

Martin Wolf on Funny Money Creation (Izabella Kaminska @ FT Alphaville; free, but requires registration... I think)

Funny Money Debate Rumbles On (Izabella Kaminska @ FT Alphaville)

The Fed is not “Printing Money.” It’s Retiring Bonds and Issuing Reserves. (Steve Roth @ Angry Bear)